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January 20, 2000

Natural Selection

A Simulation Available

I've commented in earlier postings on being skeptical of natural selection as the driving force of evolution. Nick Bucska, who specializes in simulations, has sent me a program he's developed, which among other things demonstrates:

NS tends to maintain the status quo and eliminate ALL mutations.

Since NS is a statistical process, it is a mistake to assume that it has to work with a small population e.g. mutations

The popular scientific literature implicitly assumes that NS always works, ideally and fast. Actually, unless the population is built up by random effects, mutation is eliminated. For example, if a bug lays 100 eggs, a mutation with 1% higher survival probability is eliminated with 99.999 % probability.

Even in the case of relative large increase of the survival probability due to a mutation, the NS works erratically, with low probability. This causes the evolution to work in bursts.

If the population is constant, the evolution stops.

Nick tells me that such results have been well known since before1979, but they are played down because they make it difficult to imagine how evolution according to the orthodox teaching could happen.

Those interested in further information, or who perhaps would like a copy of the program to experiment with, are welcome to contact Nick Bucska directly at NBucska@PCPeripherals.com

 
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