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July 16, 2008

The Non-Problem of Global Warming

Finally, Says It All

The American Physical Society reports: "There is a considerable presence within the scientific community of people who do not agree with the IPCC conclusion that anthropogenic CO2 emissions are very probably likely to be primarily responsible for the global warming that has occurred since the Industrial Revolution," and has opened a debate that goes into a detailed argument on mathematics and climate theory that ends with this brilliant and irresistible conclusion:

Even if temperature had risen above natural variability, the recent solar Grand Maximum may have been chiefly responsible. Even if the sun were not chiefly to blame for the past half-century’s warming, the IPCC has not demonstrated that, since CO2 occupies only one-ten-thousandth part more of the atmosphere that it did in 1750, it has contributed more than a small fraction of the warming. Even if carbon dioxide were chiefly responsible for the warming that ceased in 1998 and may not resume until 2015, the distinctive, projected fingerprint of anthropogenic “greenhouse-gas” warming is entirely absent from the observed record. Even if the fingerprint were present, computer models are long proven to be inherently incapable of providing projections of the future state of the climate that are sound enough for policymaking. Even if per impossibile the models could ever become reliable, the present paper demonstrates that it is not at all likely that the world will warm as much as the IPCC imagines. Even if the world were to warm that much, the overwhelming majority of the scientific, peer-reviewed literature does not predict that catastrophe would ensue. Even if catastrophe might ensue, even the most drastic proposals to mitigate future climate change by reducing emissions of carbon dioxide would make very little difference to the climate. . . .

The correct policy approach to a non-problem is to have the courage to do nothing.

See "No Consensus, and no warming either," posted in Andrew Bolt's Blog at the Australian Herald Sun, http://blogs.news.com.au/heraldsun/andrewbolt/index.php/heraldsun/comments/no_consensus_and_no_warming_either#36855

Note added August 5, 2008 to keep the record straight
There seems to be a touch of volte-face at work. The debate was initiated by an article that the APS invited from Viscount Christopher Monckton, which was meticulously reviewed by a professor of physics. (Physics & Society, July, 2008). A few days after publication, a bold red disclaimer appeared above the article, stating that it had not undergone scientific peer review, and that both the world scientific community and the APS disagreed with its conclusions. Although the disclaimer has since been removed, the APS has posted a statement affirming a politically correct public position--see http://www.aps.org/about/pressreleases/climatechange08.cfm?renderforpri

 
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